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“Everything changes everything” – Late Baltimore Orioles’ Hall of Fame Manager Earl Weaver
Determining the political landscape for next year’s midterm elections may prove to be impossible.
At least right now.
Midterms have become increasingly challenging to decipher in recent cycles. A learned, Democratic Capitol Hill hand told me after the historic, 63-seat bloodletting by House Democrats in 2010 that the election was “un-modellable.”
Midterms are usually a problem for the party of the President.
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That said, Democrats only lost a few House seats in 1962 – immediately following the Cuban Missile Crisis – which nearly brought the U.S. and Soviet Union to nuclear blows.
Democrats lost a staggering 47 House seats in 1966 – the first and only midterm of late President Lyndon Johnson. But the electoral rapture barely dented the robust House majority. Democrats controlled 295 House seats before the 1966 midterms. 248 seats afterwards. Still a comfortable margin.
Very few political observers expected Democrats to lose control of the House in the legendary 1994 midterms – mainly because the party held the House for 40 consecutive years. It was nearly unthinkable that Democrats could lose the House – simply because it had not happened in decades. Democrats and other political observers excoriated the brilliant Michael Barone when he was the lone commentator to forecast that a Republican flip of the House could be in the offing come the fall of 1994.
Barone was right, as Republicans collected 54 seats.
Republicans nearly lost control of the House in the 1998 midterms – after they impeached former President Clinton. Republicans then bested the historic norms in 2002 and held the House, boosted by pro-GOP sentiment following 9/11.
Democrats managed to win back the House in 2018 – following a similar playbook they deployed in 2006 when they also captured control of the House. Democrats ran a number of moderate ex-military or “national security” Democrats – often in battleground districts. The relative unpopularity of President Donald Trump didn’t help Republicans, either.
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., boasted that Republicans may capture anywhere from 40-60 seats in the 2022 midterms. Republicans did win the House – but barely.
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Which brings us to 2026.
The party of the President historically loses around 25 seats in their first midterm. Since President Trump is only the second commander in chief to return to office after a hiatus (late President Grover Cleveland was the first), 2026 serves as a de facto “first midterm.” Trump and the Republicans lost 41 House seats in 2018 – his true first midterm. But calculating what to expect next year is nearly impossible.
Republicans now hold a 219 to 212 majority in the House with four vacancies. Three of those seats are solidly Democratic – for now. So for the sake of argument, let’s say the breakdown is 220 to 215. Democrats must only flip a net of three seats to claim the majority.
It’s not that easy.
First off, we barely understand the 2026 playing field.
In baseball, it’s 90 feet between the bases. 60 feet, 6 inches to the pitcher’s mound. Major League Baseball even standardized the size of the dirt infield a couple of years ago.
As we head to the playoffs, we know the Milwaukee Brewers and Detroit Tigers are excellent. The New York Mets and New York Yankees should be really good., but they’ve stumbled. The Philadelphia Phillies are excellent – but just lost starting pitcher Zack Wheeler to a major injury. Who could surprise down the stretch? The Cincinnati Reds and Kansas City Royals are hardly out of it. Everyone understands the general variables of Major League Baseball as October nears.
That is not the case with the 2026 midterms.
Texas Republicans are now determined to redraw Congressional districts to favor a GOP pickup of five seats. President Trump has endorsed similar efforts to tilt the field in favor of Republicans in GOP-strongholds like Missouri, Ohio and Indiana. California Gov. Gavin Newsom is threatening to upend the present maps in favor of Democrats in the Golden State. New York Democrats may try the same in the Empire State.
So, we don’t even know the basics. How far from the plate to the mound in the 2026 midterms? How large is the strike zone? Five balls for a walk or the standard four? Twelve players in the field or nine?
Redistricting could also hamper Republicans – forcing the party to suddenly defend a number of more competitive seats. Democrats could suddenly have more opportunities where none existed in 2024.
But we aren’t sure.
Maybe everything is status quo and Democrats only need to flip those three seats.
We also don’t know how the relative unpopularity of President Trump may impact voters. He historically defies political gravity. Plus, the Democratic brand remains utterly toxic. Party registration is down for the Democrats – big time.
That said, could Republicans reap the benefits of passing the hallmark of their legislative agenda – the One, Big, Beautiful Bill? Some conservatives doubt that the GOP has sufficiently sold the public on that legislation, especially during the August recess. Democrats are banking on the possibility that the legislation will backfire on the GOP in next year’s midterms. We also don’t know if President Trump not being on the ballot in 2026 is similar to the Republican midterm performance in 2018. It’s clear that not having Mr. Trump on the ballot in 2018 undercut the party at the polls.
Republicans could also face a backlash from moderates and swing voters if they are dissatisfied with the performance of the President. We certainly saw that after voters tired of the polices of former Presidents George H.W. Bush in 1990, Bill Clinton in 1994, George W. Bush in 2006 and Barack Obama in 2010.
And, we have an entire 15 months before voters head to the polls next year. There could be another foreign policy crisis involving the Middle East. Tensions with Russia over Ukraine are volatile. There are host of potential events – ranging from health policy to the economy which could set the table for the midterms.
Lots to consider.
It’s all in play.
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“Everything changes everything,” observed the sage Earl Weaver.
Or perhaps we should turn to New York Yankees legend Yogi Berra:
“In baseball, you don’t know nothing.”
